Blue hydrogen market seen growing to 7.89 million tons by 2031

Mordor Intelligence says the global blue hydrogen market could rise from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031, driven by carbon capture projects, ammonia trade routes and industrial demand. Asia-Pacific is emerging as the main growth region as companies and governments back hydrogen supply chains and low-carbon fuel investments.

Why it matters: - Blue hydrogen is moving from a niche low-carbon fuel to a major industrial input for ammonia, methanol, refining and potentially marine fuel. - The forecast points to fast demand growth, with the market projected to expand at a 57.64% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. - Asia-Pacific’s role in imports, exports and infrastructure could shape where global supply chains are built.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence projected the global blue hydrogen market at 0.81 million tons in 2026, rising to 7.89 million tons by 2031. - The report said Asia-Pacific is emerging as a key growth region, supported by blue ammonia supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. - The report highlighted investment in autothermal reforming plants with carbon capture, supported by the US IRA 45V tax credit and EU regulations. - The report also pointed to shared carbon capture and storage infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast, North Sea and Alberta as a way to lower project costs.

The details: - Saudi Arabia’s blue ammonia exports to Japan show how ammonia can move hydrogen over long distances. - South Korea is investing in ammonia-cracking infrastructure to support regional hydrogen supply chains. - Japan and South Korea are using these trade routes to access lower-carbon hydrogen while working around domestic renewable energy limits. - Chemical producers are adopting blue hydrogen as a lower-carbon feedstock for ammonia and methanol production. - Blue hydrogen is also getting attention in fertilizer manufacturing and marine fuel production as companies try to meet emissions requirements. - Carbon capture incentives and demand for certified low-carbon products are pushing producers toward long-term supply agreements. - Carbon capture raises energy use, feedstock demand and operating costs. - Autothermal reforming can improve efficiency, but added oxygen supply infrastructure increases project expense. - High natural gas prices in Europe are weighing on production economics. - Hydrogen pyrolysis remains an early-stage alternative. - The report said these constraints may limit blue hydrogen use in power generation where efficiency matters most. - The market is segmented by technology into steam methane reforming plus CCS, autothermal reforming plus CCS, gas partial oxidation plus CCS, natural gas pyrolysis, and integrated SMR-ATR hybrids. - End users include refining, chemicals, iron and steel, transportation, and other industries such as cement, glass and food. - The geographic regions covered are Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa. - The report is available in Japanese, French, German, Spanish and Portuguese.

Between the lines: - Asia-Pacific is becoming a center for blue hydrogen production and trade, with China adding production capacity and carbon storage projects. - Japan and South Korea are building import terminals to support hydrogen supply chains. - India is exploring blue hydrogen production, but broader adoption will depend on policy support and carbon pricing. - Europe is backing blue hydrogen through low-carbon fuel policies and industrial cluster investments, even as high gas prices and carbon storage rules remain hurdles. - The United Kingdom is building hydrogen supply networks, while Germany and other European countries are advancing selected projects. - Saudi Arabia and Brazil are exploring export opportunities, with Northeast Asia emerging as a likely destination. - Jayveer V, senior research manager at Mordor Intelligence, said investments in carbon capture infrastructure, low-carbon hydrogen production and industrial applications are shaping market opportunities. - Jayveer V added that Mordor Intelligence uses a structured research methodology to provide market insight and competitive assessment.

What's next: - March 2025: Aramco completed the acquisition of a 50% stake in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company, a joint venture with Air Products Qudra, in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. - The Saudi venture is designed to produce lower-carbon hydrogen from natural gas using carbon capture and storage and to support refining, chemical and petrochemical customers. - August 2026: CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui broke ground on the Blue Point One project in Louisiana with about $3.7 billion of investment. - The Louisiana plant will use autothermal reforming to make hydrogen for low-carbon ammonia production, with captured CO₂ sent for permanent storage. - The facility is expected to produce 1.4 million metric tons of ammonia a year and start operations in 2029. - The report said future growth will depend on lower-cost carbon capture infrastructure, supportive policy and expanding industrial demand.

The bottom line: - Blue hydrogen is gaining momentum because carbon capture, ammonia trade and industrial decarbonization are converging around the same supply chain.